Sponsoring Institution
Agricultural Research Service/USDA
Status
ACTIVE
Funding Source
USDA COOPERATIVE AGREEMENT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Project Director
GOTTWALD T R
Accession Number
427605
Project Number
6034-22000-039-53S
Dates
2014-06-01 - 2016-05-31
Recipient Organization
University of Salford
43 The Crescent
Salford,null null
Keywords
canker
citrus
huanglongbing
plum
pox
virus
Research Effort
Applied (30%)
Basic (60%)
Developmental (10%)
Classification Parameters
| Knowledge Area | Subject of Investigation | Field of Science | Percent |
|---|
| 212 - Pathogens and Nematodes Affecting Plants |
910 - Grapefruit |
1040 - Molecular biology |
25% |
| 212 - Pathogens and Nematodes Affecting Plants |
920 - Orange |
1060 - Biology (whole systems) |
25% |
| 212 - Pathogens and Nematodes Affecting Plants |
1114 - Peach |
1040 - Molecular biology |
10% |
| 212 - Pathogens and Nematodes Affecting Plants |
1122 - Strawberry |
1060 - Biology (whole systems) |
10% |
| 212 - Pathogens and Nematodes Affecting Plants |
1429 - Cucurbits, other (includes pumpkin, squash, gourd) |
1040 - Molecular biology |
10% |
| 212 - Pathogens and Nematodes Affecting Plants |
1460 - Tomato |
1060 - Biology (whole systems) |
10% |
| 212 - Pathogens and Nematodes Affecting Plants |
2110 - Ornamental trees and shrubs |
1040 - Molecular biology |
10% |
Goals / Objectives
- Develop models of disease spread and control to optimize mitigation programs that account for grower and public economic and social dynamics including communication networks (balancing rapidness of disease mitigation with social tolerance of the program by growers and the public)
- Develop understanding of the perceptions, information levels, experiences, attitudes and behaviors of growers/public to disease threats, based on: (i) anecdotal evidence from regulatory programs, (ii) from newspaper/magazine publications, and (iii) from a preliminary study done by McRoberts on grower/public perception dynamics of the Huanglongbing (HLB) regulatory program in California. In the case that such anecdotal evidence is insufficient to develop the modelling approaches we will develop a questionnaire to be used in a limited population survey to gather information on specific aspects of the socio-economic dynamics of regulatory programs.
- Identify the key social and political constraints and acceptance thresholds to mitigation programs for each of the case studies and from this formulate management methods to minimize socio-political impacts and optimize cost-effective control of emerging plant diseases
- Develop a set of Best Management Practices for mitigation programs that accommodate social and political impacts. Transfer the methodologies to APHIS for consideration of current and future mitigation programs.
Methods (unparsed)
For statewide early detection of invaders: The spatially explicit state scale epidemic model coupled to the travel census model will be used to run a range of epidemic scenarios. Parameterized for HLB, we will generate using the travel census model a wide range of most likely pathogen entry scenarios. These will feed into the state wide epidemic spread model. Using our spatial simulated annealing method, as developed earlier in this project, we will develop optimized early warning monitoring programs on the model output. For the survey cost calculator: We will further development to a stand-alone application and further parameterization to reflect costs of survey components accurately. Methods have been designed to link multiple copies of the estimator together such that each survey can be examined independently but multiple surveys can be addressed simultaneously. In this way multiple emergency programs can be modeled.
Methods
For statewide early detection of invaders: The spatially explicit state scale epidemic model coupled to the travel census model will be used to run a range of epidemic scenarios. Parameterized for HLB, we will generate using the travel census model a wide range of most likely pathogen entry scenarios. These will feed into the state wide epidemic spread model. Using our spatial simulated annealing method, as developed earlier in this project, we will develop optimized early warning monitoring programs on the model output. For the survey cost calculator: We will further development to a stand-alone application and further parameterization to reflect costs of survey components accurately. Methods have been designed to link multiple copies of the estimator together such that each survey can be examined independently but multiple surveys can be addressed simultaneously. In this way multiple emergency programs can be modeled.